Up to a dozen states could legalize adult-use or medical marijuana in 2020 through their legislatures or ballot measures, although only about a handful will likely do so.
Much of the cannabis industry’s focus will home in on a possible recreational marijuana domino effect along the East Coast, which could create billions of dollars in business opportunities.
Potential legalization activity runs from the Southwest to the Dakotas to the Deep South. Mississippi in particular has a business-friendly medical cannabis initiative that has qualified for the 2020 ballot.Adult-use legalization efforts in New York and New Jersey stalled in 2019, but optimism has rekindled this year.
Here are three factors to keep in mind as states address either recreational or medical legalization this year:
1. In the past, marijuana legalization has primarily occurred through the ballot box. But in a momentous development, Illinois legalized a projected $2 billion adult-use program through its Legislature in 2019. Expect that trend to amplify in 2020. “Increasingly, legalization is moving toward legislatures,” said Karen O’Keefe, director of state policies for the Marijuana Policy Project. “That’s the biggest shift.”
2. State marijuana laws historically have reflected a patchwork of regulations. But a more mature industry means that legalization increasingly involves conversations over what has worked and hasn’t worked in legal states. The lack of industry diversity is one common topic. “There’s a strong focus on making sure communities most hard-hit by the war on drugs benefit,” O’Keefe noted.
3. Democratic governors in the Northeast are trying to coordinate adult-use legalization efforts. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo hosted a summit in October to begin discussing common approaches to licensing, taxation, minority and small-business participation, product potency and other issues. Cannabis businesses would still need a lot of resources to apply for licenses and to operate on the East Coast, but they might be able to use one application as a template for others in the region. But experts say a regional approach is easier said than done, with each state facing its own internal politics.
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